Trump approval drops, skepticism grows on inflation

A Marquette Law School national poll released this week shows sharply declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump, with his marks on inflation and the economy cratering and confidence in his leadership imploding.

Trump is also on the wrong side of the curve when it comes to such issues as birthright citizenship and executive authority over the Federal Reserve. The poll, conducted April 8-16 among 982 adults nationwide, finds Trump’s overall job approval sitting at 39 percent, with 60 percent disapproving, a net approval rating of -21 points, and the lowest of his second term. 

The trajectory for Trump has been all downward. He scored 48 percent approval at the start of his term in early 2025, which slid to 42 percent approval in January.

Support for Trump remains strong among Republicans at 78 percent, but that figure has fallen from 89 percent at the beginning of his term, and it’s the first time his approval among GOP voters has dropped below 80 percent, according to the survey. 

Among independents, Trump nets approval from only 20 percent; 6 percent of Democrats approve of the president’s performance.

Finally, the poll shows declining public confidence in Trump’s broader decision-making. Just 39 percent say they “completely or mostly trust” him to make the right decisions for the country, down from 45 percent in March 2025, while 61 percent say they do not trust him. 

Inflation up, Trump down

The president’s weakest marks come on inflation, which remains the dominant issue in national polling. Only 24 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the issue overall, while confidence in his ability to reduce inflation has dropped sharply. Just 23 percent believe his policies will lower inflation, compared to 41 percent shortly after his reelection. 

Meanwhile, 62 percent say his policies will increase inflation, a substantial jump from 45 percent late last year.

That shift appears to track with broader public sentiment on the economy. In the latest survey, some 70 percent expect inflation to rise over the next year. Only 25 percent rate the economy as “excellent” or “good,” down from 35 percent in January. Thirty-eight percent say they are worse off financially than a year ago. 

The poll shows that more of the public perceives that costs are rising. Fully 93 percent say gas prices have increased in the past six months, a reversal from January, when half of the respondents said prices had declined. Similarly, 82 percent report that grocery prices have risen.

Meanwhile, Trump gets a very mixed rating on a buffet of issues, both domestic and foreign.

On specific issues, Trump performs best on border security, where 52 percent approve of his handling, according to the poll. He scores at 44 percent on immigration, but his ratings on the economy are well below his overall approval level.

Trump is way underwater on tariffs, the Iran war, and inflation. The latter issue, in particular, posts the lowest net approval of any issue tested, at -52 percentage points. 

The public is also rejecting Trump’s aggressive foreign policy decisions. The survey finds broad public skepticism toward recent U.S. military actions abroad, with just 32 percent approving of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, while 68 percent disapprove. 

Only 32 percent support using the military to force political change in other countries, while 68 percent oppose it. At the same time, 75 percent approve of the cease-fire ending the conflict, suggesting the public favors ending the war sooner rather than later.

Birthright

On the constitutional debate over birthright citizenship, Trump is opposed by a margin of more than 2-1. By 69 percent to 30 percent, respondents said the U.S. Supreme Court should rule that Trump’s executive order limiting birthright citizenship is unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment. 

However, there were clear partisan differences. Among Republicans, 54 percent support the order; 46 percent oppose. Among independents, 77 percent say it is unconstitutional; 91 percent of Democrats agree.

Even among those who approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, the public is divided: 59 percent support the order, and 41 percent oppose it.

The public also supports the Federal Reserve’s continued independence. Specifically, the poll examined whether the president should have the authority to remove members of the Federal Reserve Board. 

A majority of 66 percent said the Supreme Court should rule that the president does not have authority to remove Federal Reserve governors, while 34 percent say he should. Sixty-three percent of Republicans agreed with Trump; 67 percent of independents disagree; and 94 percent of Democrats oppose it.

Views on the issue closely track trust in Trump. Among those who trust him, 71 percent support removal authority; among those who do not, 89 percent oppose it.

The survey highlights broader divisions over the Supreme Court and its role in Trump-related disputes. Almost two-thirds of respondents — 66 percent — support a recent Supreme Court ruling limiting Trump’s authority to impose tariffs under emergency powers, while 33 percent opposed the decision. 

At the same time, 57 percent believe the Court is deliberately avoiding rulings that Trump might defy, underscoring ongoing debates about institutional boundaries and red lines between the executive and judicial branches. Approval of the Supreme Court itself stands at 42 percent, down slightly from 44 percent in January. 

Overall, the poll suggests a challenging political environment for the administration. Democrats hold a 4-point lead on the generic congressional ballot among registered voters and a 10-point lead among likely voters, according to the survey summary. 

Inflation and cost of living remain the top issues for voters at 30 percent, followed by the Iran war at 24 percent.

While Trump retains strong support among the Republican base, that has declined significantly for the first time during the Trump era. Declining support among independents and declining trust in Trump’s ability to tame inflation are also weighing on his overall approval rating.

The public appears to be drawing firmer lines on constitutional questions, showing consistent resistance to expanding executive power in areas ranging from citizenship to control of the Federal Reserve.

Richard Moore is the author of “Dark State” and may be reached at richardd3d.substack.com.