Marquette Poll: 2026 races wide open

The 2026 campaign season isn’t officially here yet, and that’s a good thing for most candidates because the latest Marquette Law School Poll released this week shows little voter awareness, with overwhelming majorities of respondents reporting they have not formed opinions about candidates for governor or state Supreme Court.

In both Republican and Democratic primaries for governor, at least seven in 10 voters say they have not chosen a candidate. Only 6 percent say they have heard “a lot” about the campaigns, underscoring what pollsters describe as exceptionally low early engagement in races where no major contender has yet emerged. 

The survey of 846 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 15-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. 

In the gubernatorial race, among Republicans, 70 percent say they have not chosen a primary candidate, while 81 percent of Democrats say the same. Name recognition remains low for every candidate, and the few voters who do express opinions tend to be split on favorability. 

On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wisconsin-07) has the highest name recognition and familiarity, with 39 percent saying they both recognize his name and have an opinion about him. Washington County executive Josh Schoemann is recognized by 17 percent, and medical service technician Andy Manske is recognized by 11 percent, the poll states. 

Tiffany thus heads out as the early leader, but there are still a ton of voters on the table. With 70 percent undecided, Tiffany captures 23 percent, Schoemann 6 percent, and Manske “less than half of a percent,” the poll states.

Democrats are even less organized around the stars in their constellation. In that primary, 81 percent are undecided, and no candidate draws more than single-digit support, the poll states. 

Milwaukee County executive David Crowley is recognized by 26 percent of respondents, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez by 25 percent, and state Rep. Francesca Hong by 22 percent. Other candidates — including state Sen. Kelda Roys, attorney Missy Hughes, former state Rep. Brett Hulsey, and Milwaukee beer vendor Ryan Strnad — also register in the teens on name identification. 

Despite that roughly even familiarity, early support is minimal. Hong leads with 6 percent, followed by Rodriguez at 4 percent, Crowley and Roys at 3 percent each, Hughes at 2 percent, Strnad with less than half a percent, and Hulsey showed no support. 

“Only two candidates, Schoemann and Rodriguez, have positive net favorability, just 1 point in each case,  while other candidates have net negative favorability in single digits,” the poll states. “In all cases, more than 60 percent of registered voters say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about the candidates.”

Regional familiarity makes a difference. Tiffany’s seventh congressional district base gives him considerably higher recognition in the northern and western media markets, the poll states, where 60 percent have an opinion of him. Crowley is better known in the Milwaukee area.

Supreme Court

The April 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court race is similarly off voters’ radar: “Only 6 percent say they have heard a lot about the Supreme Court election in April, with 46 percent having heard a little and 47 percent having heard nothing at all,” the poll states.

The two declared candidates — appeals court judges Maria Lazar and Chris Taylor — each clock only around 15–16 percent name recognition. Taylor receives a 7 percent favorable and 9 percent unfavorable rating; Lazar sits at 7 percent favorable and 8 percent unfavorable. 

Though engagement is limited, voters still say they intend to vote.

“Despite the lack of knowledge about the race, 69 percent of registered voters say they are absolutely certain to vote in April, while 20 percent say they are very likely to vote, 10 percent say the chances are 50-50, and 2 percent say they won’t vote,” the poll states. “Among Democrats, 74 percent are certain they will vote, as are 69 percent of Republicans and 52 percent of independents.

A strong majority — 83 percent — says judicial candidates should discuss issues likely to come before them so voters can understand their views. Just 17 percent think candidates should avoid discussing issues. 

In a striking result, 56 percent say the state should move to partisan elections for Supreme Court justices. The shift follows years of politically polarized campaigns and high-dollar races. 

Inflation dominates concerns

On the issues, public attention continues to be focused of inflation and the cost of living — 69 percent say they are “very concerned” about it. Health insurance is not far behind at 60 percent, followed by public schools (56 percent), gun violence (56 percent), jobs and the economy (53 percent), housing affordability (53 percent), and abortion policy (50 percent). 

Partisan divides remain wide.

“On the issue of greatest concern among all registered votes — inflation — 54 percent of Republicans are very concerned, compared to 79 percent of independents and 83 percent of Democrats,” the poll states. “The partisan gap is even larger for health insurance and for gun violence, where Republicans are much less concerned than are Democrats.”

The largest partisan gap is over illegal immigration and border security, the poll states: 75 percent of Republicans are very concerned, compared to 31 percent of independents and 16 percent of Democrats. The smallest partisan differences are concerns over taxes and public schools, the poll continued.

“Respondents were asked which issue is most important to them,” the poll stated. “Inflation tops this list at 27 percent. The issue rated second most important is illegal immigration and border security, picked by 16 percent, followed by health insurance, 14 percent. While respondents registered considerable concern about public schools, only 4 percent rate this as most important.”

Grocery prices remain top-of-mind: 44 percent say prices have gone up a lot in the past six months; another 32 percent say they have risen a little. Women report sharper price increases than men. 

Voters remain skeptical of federal tariffs. Just 33 percent believe tariffs help the U.S. economy, while 55 percent say they hurt. A similar share — 62 percent — say tariffs are hurting Wisconsin farmers, with only 16 percent saying they help. 

Wisconsinites are divided over who bears responsibility for the recent federal shutdown: 38 percent blame Republicans, 33 percent blame Democrats, and 28 percent blame both equally. 

Approval ratings

Now that he is not running for re-election, Gov. Tony Evers’s job approval jumped to 50 percent, up two points from June, with 45 percent disapproval. Approval of the Republican-controlled Legislature sits at 39 percent, with 50 percent disapproval. 

The Wisconsin Supreme Court has a 45 percent approval rating and a 39 percent disapproval rating, the poll stated. President Donald Trump has a 46 percent approval rating and a 53 percent disapproval rating, little changed since June. 

On several state policy questions, Wisconsin voters show strong consensus: 78 percent favor requiring a photo ID to vote, 78 percent support same-day voter registration, and 72 percent favor requiring proof of citizenship to register. 

On paid family leave, 77 percent support requiring businesses to provide paid parental leave for the birth of a child — including 64 percent of Republicans, 72 percent of independents, and 93 percent of Democrats. 

About 62 percent say they are very or somewhat satisfied with public schools; 37 percent are dissatisfied, the poll stated. However, more voters now emphasize lower property taxes over higher school funding — 56 percent to 44 percent. For the first time, a majority (57 percent) say they would vote against a school tax referendum in their community, while 43 percent would vote in favor. 

With primaries still 10 months away — scheduled for Aug. 11, 2026 — the finding that voters have not coalesced around candidates is unsurprising, the pollsters said. But the scale of disengagement suggests candidates will need to introduce themselves more aggressively.

Richard Moore is the author of “Dark State” and may be reached at richardd3d.substack.com.