Underly cruises, despite cracks in establishment support

News analysis

Nursery rhymes aren’t forever, at least in Wisconsin elections. In the 1882 English quatrain, Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall and had a great fall, and all the King’s horses and all the King’s men couldn’t put Humpty back together again.

In Wisconsin, heading into the spring election, Wisconsin’s own Humpty Dumpty — Department of Public Instruction superintendent Jill Underly — had a great fall off the establishment wall, somehow getting on the wrong side of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and the state teachers union PAC, but this time all the horses and men and women of the Democratic establishment did indeed put Underly back together again.

On Tuesday, Underly rolled to a first place finish in a three-way primary, winning 177,205 votes with most precincts reporting. Education consultant Brittany Kinser, a Democratic moderate backed by many conservatives, ran second with 161,385 votes. 

Sauk Prairie schools superintendent Jeff Wright, who had the backing of the once powerful Wisconsin Education Association Council (WEAC) political action committee, ran third with 128,336 votes and was eliminated. WEAC itself did not endorse, but the PAC had recommended Wright.

While Underly lost Evers’s support — he did not endorse in the election, either — and also some other establishment support — the Association of Wisconsin School

Administrators endorsed Wright — she assembled a powerful array of Democratic state lawmakers and also enjoyed the muscle of the state Democratic Party, which pumped more than $100,000 into her campaign in the past month.

That team put Underly back together again, and it leaves her well-positioned for the spring election. Meanwhile, the state Republican Party got in the race behind Kinser, a Democratic Party moderate who donated to Tammy Baldwin, kicking in somewhere in the neighborhood of $200,000 to her effort.

So far, Kinser has significantly outraised Underly.

Conservatives are backing Kinser based on her past support for charter schools and a belief that she would be the candidate most amenable to school choice. GOP chairman Brian Schimming congratulated Kinser on her finish.

“Brittany Kinser is the common-sense candidate for state superintendent,” Schimming said. “Tonight, voters took a stand against the far-left policies of Jill Underly. They are fed up with liberal ideas being prioritized over their children. We look forward to building on this momentum as we head into the spring general election.”

The state Democratic Party was equally effusive for Underly.

“Jill Underly is a champion for Wisconsin’s public schools, educators, and kids, and is the proven leader we need at the Department of Public Instruction,” state Democratic Party chairman Ben Wikler said. “As superintendent of Public Instruction, Jill helped pass a new bipartisan literacy law, raised standards for math and science, and expanded career and technical education.”

For her part, Kinser thanked what she called a strong grassroots effort and made an appeal to Wright’s voters.

“I am inspired and humbled by the level of support my campaign has received in just a few short months,” Kinser said. “From now until April 1, I will continue to travel the state and share my plan to bring a clean slate, a fresh start, and a fundamentally new approach to DPI.”

Wright ran a strong race, Kinser said, and she noted that the two agreed on several important issues “like restoring the high standards Jill Underly lowered for our children.”

“I am committed to restoring those standards and ensuring every child has the opportunity to go to college, get a meaningful job, or master a trade,” she said. “I welcome Jeff, his supporters, and all Wisconsinites — regardless of their political beliefs — who agree that our kids deserve so much better to join our campaign.”

In contrast, using a scripted Democratic talking point repeated by others, Underly said she had in fact raised standards for the state’s children.

“Throughout my tenure as state superintendent, I helped pass a new bipartisan literacy law, implemented higher standards for math and science, and expanded career and technical education,” Underly said. “Today, our graduation rate is the highest in state history and our schools are ranked 6th in the nation by U.S. News and World Report — up from 14th in 2020.”

Underly also took direct aim at Kinser.

“My opponent, Brittany Kinser, is a former lobbyist who has never held a teaching license in the state of Wisconsin,” she said. “She has lobbied to drain funds from our public schools and give it to private schools. She’s even advocated to remove teacher licensing requirements. Those policies will put our public schools on a dangerous race to the bottom.”

The spring

There was good news and bad in the results for both Underly and Kinser, though on balance more of the bad kind for Kinser.

For one thing, voters in the state superintendent race tend to skew Democratic because the elections are held in lower-turnout spring races where organized Democratic interest groups mobilize their voters, giving them outsized influence in most years.

The fact that all three candidates are Democrats with the GOP falling in behind the more moderate of them shows just how Democratic the superintendent electorate is. To be sure, the Democratic base was fractured, and so the question becomes just how many Wright voters Kinser can lure to her side.

Straight up, the betting would be, not enough. The fact that Kinser only won 28 percent of a largely Democratic pool makes her a decided underdog. Jeff Wright is a liberal to boot, and so are many of his supporters.

On the other hand, the betting might not be straight up. 

Kinser might have attracted only 28 percent of the vote, but Underly only got 38 percent, a sign of vulnerability for an incumbent. 

There is also a hot-button state Supreme Court race this spring, but it was not a factor Tuesday because there was no primary.

So while organized Democratic institutional interests had a motive to vote in the primary, the state’s conservative base did not, at least conservatives did not have as strong an incentive.

That won’t be the case when conservative former attorney general Brad Schimel and liberal Dane County circuit judge Susan Crawford square off in April, in an election in which special interests are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to decide whether liberals retain control of the state’s highest court.

Both Underly and Kinser will undoubtedly ride their respective coattails and it could substantially level the playing field between them. At the very least, the built-in Democratic advantage in a low turnout superintendent race will vanish in what will be a turnout likely to approach general election numbers.

On the other hand, expect Evers to come into the Underly fold with the primary out of the way, and for the Democratic Party to unite against Kinser. That’s significant, given that 72 percent of Tuesday’s voters cast ballots against Kinser.

Evers disagreed publicly with Underly’s decision this past year to lower test score standards, calling it a mistake. Specifically, Underly changed the way Wisconsin measures student achievement by lowering proficiency standards on state tests.

“I think there should have been some information and dialog happening with all sorts of people before that decision was made,” Evers told CBS 58 about the test scores decision. “The mistake was there wasn’t enough conversation with stakeholders, parents ahead of time. I think it could have been handled better.”

Both Kinser and Wright were motivated to enter the race because of that decision, at least in part, but all’s well that ends well, as it did for Underly on Tuesday.

The bottom line? Any remaining establishment disaffection with Underly and a strong Schimel campaign will give Kinser a legitimate shot, though in a down-to-the-wire Supreme Court election, a largely united Democratic Party, as well as institutional and professional educator support for Underly, could make the difference, especially given that no Republican is even in the race.

Richard Moore is the author of “Dark State” and may be reached at richardd3d.substack.com.