Tariff turbulence, but more think U.S. on right track

The national media has been yelling doom and gloom about President Donald Trump’s impending tariffs, but what about the voters? 

Not so much, at least so far, according to a new Marquette Law School poll released last week. A separate Gallup survey also shows Americans feeling more satisfied about the way things are going in the U.S. since Trump took office for a second term.

Not that voters are unconcerned about the potential impacts of the tariffs. Marquette’s latest national survey found that 58 percent of respondents think the tariffs will hurt the economy, while 28 percent say they will help, and 14 percent believe they will not make much of a difference.

That said, the poll found, the number of people who say the country is headed in the right direction has more than doubled since October, from 20 percent to 42 percent in March. The number of people saying the country is on the wrong track declined from 80 percent in October to 58 percent during the same time period.

As is usually the case, the numbers break along starkly partisan lines.

“Slightly more than half of Republicans, 52 percent, think tariffs help the economy, but 58 percent of independents say they hurt the economy, as do 89 percent of Democrats,” the poll states.

The changing views on right track/wrong track are heavily influenced by partisan perceptions that shifted dramatically following Trump’s election in November, the poll reported. 

“The percentage of Republicans saying right direction jumped from 7 percent in October to 80 percent in March, while Democrats dropped from 33 percent in October to 11 percent in March,” the poll stated. “Independents became somewhat more positive about the direction of the country, rising from 14 percent saying right direction in October to 25 percent in March.”

On the other hand, the poll continues, the public is increasingly skeptical of how the economy will fare in terms of inflation.

“A majority of adults, 58 percent, think Trump’s policies will increase inflation, 30 percent think his policies will decrease inflation, and 12 percent think they will have no effect on inflation,” the poll states. “Among Republicans, 62 percent think the policies will decrease inflation, a decline from 70 percent in late January and from 76 percent in December.”

Only 16 percent of independents think inflation will decrease, compared to 26 percent in January and 28 percent in December, the poll stated. 

“Ninety-two percent of Democrats say Trump’s policies will increase inflation, an increase from 85 percent who said that in January and 82 percent in December,” the poll stated.

Even with the tariff-skeptical numbers, Trump’s approval rating declined only slightly from Marquette’s previous poll.

“Trump’s national job approval declined slightly in this late March survey to 46 percent, with 54 percent disapproval,” the poll stated. “In January, 48 percent approved and 52 percent disapproved. Trump continues to enjoy high approval among Republicans, 87 percent, hardly changed from 89 percent in January.”

His approval slipped somewhat among independents, the poll reported, to 32 percent, down from 37 percent. Approval among Democrats was 10 percent in March compared to 9 percent in January.

And Elon Musk? His work in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) garnered only a 41-percent approval rating, with disapproval at 58 percent. Musk’s personal favorability was 38 percent and 60 percent unfavorable.

Issues

As for specific issues, Marquette pollsters said tariffs were unpopular across racial, education, and gender lines. 

“The sole exception is white, non-college-educated men, one of Trump’s strongest supporting groups with 67 percent reporting having voted for Trump in November,” the poll stated. “Among this core of Trump’s support, 44 percent say tariffs help the economy and 40 percent say they hurt the economy. Among all other categories of race, education, and gender, more think the economy will be hurt rather than helped.”

Large majorities of college-educated white people of either sex and all categories of non-white people expect tariffs to damage the economy, the poll reported. 

“A plurality of non-college white women agree, though a quarter don’t think there will be much of an effect,” the poll stated.

Expectations about inflation were similar, pollsters found, with half of white, non-college-educated males thinking inflation will go down due to Trump’s policies, while a plurality of white, non-college-educated females and a majority of all other categories expect his policies to increase inflation.

“A substantial majority (65 percent) of adults believe that the number of immigrants crossing the southern border has decreased since December, with 30 percent saying crossings are about the same and 5 percent saying border crossings have gone up,” the poll stated. “A substantial majority (68 percent) favor deportation of immigrants who are in the United States illegally, an increase from 60 percent in January. Thirty-two percent are opposed.”

When asked about deporting those immigrants in the United States illegally who have been in the country for a number of years and have jobs and no criminal record, the poll found that support for deportation fell to 41 percent and opposition rose to 59 percent, slightly changed from January when 43 percent favored and 57 percent opposed deportation of that group.

“A substantial majority (64 percent) say that freezing spending or closing agencies that have been authorized by Congress is beyond the president’s powers, while 36 percent say the president does have this authority,” the poll stated. “Within the Republican Party, 38 percent say this is beyond the president’s authority and 62 percent say he has this power. Among independents, 64 percent say this is beyond the president’s power, as do 90 percent of Democrats.”

Meanwhile, 65 percent oppose abolishing the Department of Education, the poll stated, with 35 percent in favor. 

“Sixty-seven percent of Republicans favor closing the department, with 33 percent opposed,” the poll stated. “A large majority (77 percent) of independents oppose abolishing the department, with 23 percent in favor. Among Democrats, 93 percent oppose closing the department, with 7 percent in favor.”

The poll further found that the public is evenly divided on ending diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies in the federal government, with 50 percent in favor and 50 percent opposed.

“Republicans strongly support ending these policies, 80 percent, while 43 percent of independents and 22 percent of Democrats also favor ending DEI programs,” the poll stated. “A small majority of white adults favor ending DEI programs, while small to substantial majorities of non-white groups are opposed.”

Right track or wrong

The percentage saying the country is headed in the right direction has more than doubled since October, going from 20 percent in October to 42 percent in March.

The share of adults saying the economy is poor has declined over the last several months, from 31 percent in October to 20 percent in March, the poll reported. 

“But the percentage saying the economy is excellent or good has only slightly increased, rising from 24 percent in October to 26 percent in March,” the poll stated. “Most of the reduction in those saying the economy is poor was absorbed by those saying the economy is ‘not so good,’ which is now 53 percent — up from 45 percent in October.”

As for the financial situation within the home, the researchers said the percentage saying they are struggling has declined from 23 percent in October to 15 percent in March, while those saying they were just getting by rose from 43 percent to 47 percent, and those reporting living comfortably increased from 34 percent to 38 percent.

The survey was conducted March 17-27, 2025, interviewing 1,021 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

All in all, the poll reflects an upsurge in optimism since the election, with lingering unease about how it will all work out, especially on tariffs and inflation. The incremental changes in Trump’s approval suggest a wait-and-see attitude.

The overall good feeling emerging from the poll was bolstered by another survey released by the venerable Gallup organization, which has long asked the question, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?”

In March, only 37 percent of Americans said they were satisfied, while 62 percent said they were dissatisfied. Those might not seem like numbers to jump for joy over — until they are compared with the recent past. 

A year ago, for instance, only 16 percent of Americans were satisfied — that number has more than doubled — while 83 percent were dissatisfied. Those dissatisfaction numbers hovered mainly in the high 70s and low 80s until February of this year, after Trump was inaugurated for a second term, when they declined from 77 percent dissatisfaction in early January to 62 percent in early March.

Richard Moore is the author of “Dark State” and may be reached at richardd3d.substack.com.