Trump seizes strong victory, wins electoral college and popular vote

Former President and now President-elect Donald Trump will become the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to serve non-consecutive terms, as the Republican nominee on Tuesday seized an advantage in early returns over Vice-President Kamala Harris and then secured the win with a triumph in Wisconsin.

In northern Wisconsin, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, state Sen Mary Felzkowski, and state Rep. Rob Swearingen — Republicans all — romped to easy wins over token opposition candidates.

Statewide, incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin appears to have survived an aggressive challenge by Republican Eric Hovde. Baldwin claimed victory as the count of absentee ballots in Milwaukee — the city counts those last — pushed her to a lead of nearly 16,000 votes as of Wednesday morning.

With 97 percent of the vote in, Baldwin led Hovde 49.2 percent to 48.7 percent. That count is not final, and the race could be headed to a runoff.

If Baldwin does survive, she can count her blessings as Democratic senator after Democratic senator went down, or ended the night on the verge of going down. Republicans secured for Trump a majority of at least 52 Senate seats, ensuring his grip on the Supreme Court, among other things. 

Republicans won Democratic seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, and led in Pennsylvania and Nevada, with Arizona a toss-up. That gives the GOP at least 52 Senate seats, and it could be as many as 55.

The prospects for the U.S. House of Representatives were murkier and it remained possible for the Democrats to retake control of the lower chamber. As of Wednesday morning, Republicans had won 203 seats to Democrats’ 178. In those races, Democrats had flipped two GOP seats, but Republicans had flipped five Democratic seats, and were sitting on a net gain of three seats.

However, 54 seats had yet to be called as of press time, 20 of them in deep blue California. It takes 218 to have a majority.

In Wisconsin’s congressional delegation, the party alignment will remain the same, with six Republicans and two Democrats.

The historic comeback

It was a comeback for the ages for Trump, who survived two impeachments, 91 indictments, 34 felony convictions, aggressive efforts to keep him off states’ ballots, and two assassination attempts to capture the win. 

The trend was set early in the evening, as early returns and exit polls were analyzed. Harris’s vaunted turnout among suburban women failed to materialize, at least to the level needed to offset Trump gains among other demographics. 

Support for Trump did remain relatively weak in the suburbs, but he bulked up his rural vote on the margins and carved out critical support among young white men, many voting for the first time, as well as among black and Hispanic voters, particularly male voters.

According to exit polls, Hispanic men gave Trump a 10-point margin over Harris — 54 percent to 44 percent — a swing of 33 points in Trump’s favor from four years ago. Harris won Hispanic women, but she underperformed Biden’s 2020 vote total by seven percent, winning 62 percent compared to Biden’s 69 percent.

Overall, women’s votes proved to be a disappointment for Harris. She won 54 percent, according to an Edison Research exit poll, but Trump won 44 percent, and that was two percent more than he won four years ago. Exit polling suggests that the economy topped abortion as the deciding issue for many of those voters.

Then, too, while some progressives were trying to cast a racist overtone on the outcome, Trump actually performed three points worse among white voters than he did four years ago, and he was down 2 points among white male voters.

All totaled, according to the exit polls, Trump won 45 percent of Hispanic voters Tuesday, a crushing blow to Harris’s chances. Trump’s share was up 13 percent from 2020.

In Wisconsin, Harris hemorrhaged black voters and it might have been decisive, with Trump winning 20 percent of the black vote compared to 8 percent four years ago.

As election returns rolled in, the movement of voters to the GOP column was evident as Harris was consistently underperforming Biden in most Democratic areas of Georgia and North Carolina. Those states fell for Trump relatively early.

The die was cast later when Pennsylvania was called for Trump and then Wisconsin, to put Trump over the top. 

As of Wednesday morning, in uncalled battleground states, Trump held a nearly 100,000 vote lead, or 49.9 percent to 48.8 percent, in Michigan. He was also leading in Nevada 51.5 percent to 46.8 percent (93 percent of the vote in), and in Arizona by 51.9 percent to 47.2 percent, though only 63 percent of the vote in that state had been counted.

State and local elections

Statewide the GOP managed to hold on to both the state Senate and the state Assembly. The GOP will hold at least an 18-15 advantage next year in the Senate. Democrats took three seats — including knocking off state Sens. Joan Ballweg and apparently Duey Stroebel —  and could add a fourth seat.

As of Wednesday morning, the GOP had been declared victorious in 53 Assembly seats, enough to give them a majority next year. 

A constitutional amendment to restrict voting in Wisconsin to “only” citizens won with 70 percent of the vote.

In the seventh congressional district, Tiffany defeated Kyle Kilbourn 64-36 percent. Tiffany won with 61 percent of the Oneida County vote and 65 percent of the Vilas County vote.

Felzkowski prevailed in her Senate district 12 race over Andi Rich with almost 68 percent of the vote, while Swearingen was re-elected in Assembly district 34 with 64 percent of the vote.

In Oneida County. Tiffany prevailed 14,961 to 9,317. Felzkowski won 15,030 votes in the county to Rich’s 8,993; Swearingen hauled in 14,648 to challenged Dennis Nitzel’s 8,677.

Oneida County district attorney Jillian Pfeifer, county clerk Tracy Hartman, treasurer Tara Ostermann, and Register of Deeds Kyle Franson all won uncontested races.

Trump won Oneida County with 58 percent of the vote; he took 61 percent of the vote in Vilas County.

Richard Moore is the author of “Dark State” and may be reached at richardd3d.substack.com.­­