It’s down to the wire in the Badger state

It’s all over but the last of the voting and as election day in the United States arrives, it’s safe to say nobody has a clue how it will turn out.

The polls are all deadlocked and even small unanticipated shifts in turnout among key population groups could transform a perceived close contest into an electoral college rout, with either side capable of sweeping seven critical battleground states. 

Will suburban women angry about the demise of Roe v. Wade continue to bedevil Republicans and doom Donald Trump? Will voters battered by high prices and wage regression take it out on Kamala Harris?

Are the polls underestimating support for Trump, as they did both in 2016 and 2020? Are they underestimating Democratic support, as they did in the 2022 midterms? Or are they spot on?

No one knows.

Still, the final election polls — all of them close and maybe all of them “herding” around the idea of a basically tied race to protect themselves — do offer some insight into the thinking of the electorate, never mind that those insights might say little about how those voters will vote.

The final Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin voters released late last week was typical of other surveys, both of Wisconsin voters and of voters in other battleground states.

In sum, the aggregate numbers were effectively tied, with Trump seeing month-over-month movement in his direction. But in the data were also some signals that Harris could pull a surprise.

According to the poll, Harris notches support from 50 percent of likely voters in Wisconsin while Trump gets the nod from 49 percent, in a head-to-head matchup. As is usually the case with the Marquette poll, the numbers include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. 

The effective tie shows Harris slipping from Marquette’s previous poll in late September, when she held a 52-48 percent lead among likely voters. The erosion takes the Democratic nominee from the edge of the margin of error to completely within it.

The survey in the U.S. Senate race featuring Republican nominee Eric Hovde and incumbent Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin also showed a narrowing contest, with Baldwin clinging to a 51-49 lead. That race has tightened considerably, so much so that the much vaunted Cook Political Report has shifted the race from “lean Democrat” to toss up.

Still, it’s probably better to be a point ahead than a point behind, polls always get closer as election day approaches, and — given other polling — most of Trump’s gains likely came earlier rather than later in October. Most national polls show Trump’s upward trajectory stalling with about 10 days left in October.

Key takeaways

In Wisconsin as in other places, Republicans have closed the gap on early voting, though it still remains a plus for Democrats.

Those who said they will vote in person on election day favor Trump 56-44 in the Marquette poll; those who say they will vote early but in person favor Trump 52-47; but those who say they have or will vote absentee by mail overwhelmingly favor Harris 70-30.

The advantage of early voting is that some people who intend to vote on election day sometimes run into situations — work or family emergencies, illness — that prevent them from getting to the polls. Early voting prevents such ballot attrition.

Marquette polling director Charles Franklin broke down the demographics.

“Men prefer Trump by 12 percentage points, while women prefer Harris by 14 points,” Franklin wrote. “In Marquette Law School polls of Wisconsin registered voters, this 26-point gap is larger than the 21-point gap when Biden was the 2024 Democratic candidate but smaller than the 30-point gap in 2016 or the 32-point gap in 2020.”

The biggest gender gap threat to Trump comes from women age 18-29, where Harris has 36-point lead in July through October polls combined. Trump leads by only one point in that age group among men. On the flip side, the biggest gender gap threat to Harris is among men age 45-59, who favor Trump by 36 points, compared to women in that age group, who favor Harris by 14 points.

Those under 30 are the most Democratic age group, Franklin wrote, giving Harris a 22-point margin over Trump, while those 45-59 years old prefer Trump by 10 points. Also not surprisingly, the poll showed voters living in cities — Green Bay, Madison, and Milwaukee — favor Harris by 36 points, while those in rural areas and small towns favor Trump by 23 points.

“The largest religious contrast is between born-again Protestants, who favor Trump by a margin of 60 percentage points, and those identifying as ‘no religion/atheistic/agnostic,’ who favor Harris by a 51-percentage-point margin,” Franklin wrote.

One of the most reliable predictors of outcomes in close elections, at least in past elections, is the measure of voter enthusiasm, which is usually a good indicator of turnout. In the final Marquette poll, the Democrats have that working in their favor slightly, with 75 percent saying they are very enthusiastic about voting compared to only 66 percent of Republicans who say they are very enthusiastic about voting.

Only 36 percent of independents say they are very enthusiastic about voting, down from 50 percent in September, and that could spell trouble for Harris, who has maintained a double-digit lead among these voters.

Finally, on issues, Trump would seem to have the better hand, with 38 percent citing the economy as the top concern, way ahead of the second-most important issue, abortion, cited by 15 percent of respondents as the most important issue.

Immigration and border security is a close third, with 13 percent saying it is the top issue in the election.

“The economy was seen as the most important issue by 33 percent in April, while immigration was most important to 21 percent that month,” Franklin wrote. “Both have been relatively stable since July, with around 38 percent saying the economy is the most important issue and around 13 percent saying immigration is the most important. Abortion policy has been rated as the most important by about 15 percent since June, a slight increase from 13 percent in April.”

Finally, Harris has an edge in holding her base, with 97 percent of Democrats saying they’ll vote for her, while 92 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Trump.

But Harris wins the independents — if they vote — by 57 percent to 42 percent. That’s down, though, from 61-39 percent of independents supporting Harris is September.