Trump, Biden run neck-and-neck with summer looming

April presidential polls have brought May  …. more presidential polls, and the last batch looks eerily similar to all the others over the past half-year, with Donald Trump clinging nationally to an ever-so-slight lead over President Joe Biden, including the latest Marquette Law School poll released this past week.

In the Marquette poll, Trump and Biden are actually tied at 50 percent to 50 percent among registered voters. Throw Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name on the ballot — as well as Jill Stein and Cornel West — and Trump edges ahead 40-37 percent, with Kennedy claiming 17 percent.

Among likely voters — considered a more accurate index in polling — Trump receives 51 percent and Biden 49 percent in the two-candidate field. The lead widens only slightly in the five-candidate field: Trump, 44 percent; Biden , 41 percent; Kennedy, 11 percent; and Stein and West 2 percent each.

The Marquette poll pointed out that the results were basically identical to its March 2024 poll, when Trump and Biden were tied at 50 percent, and Trump had a three-point advantage in the five-candidate field, 41-38 over Biden, with Kennedy at 14 percent, among registered voters.

The Marquette poll also attempted to gauge what impact the outcome of Trump’s current criminal trial in New York might have on his chances. He is charged with falsifying business records to cover up payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

“To test the possible effect of the outcome of the trial, we asked half the sample: If it turns out that Donald Trump is found guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?” the poll stated. “And for the other half sample we asked: If it turns out that Donald Trump is found not guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?”

For those presented with the guilty scenario, Biden pushed to a 4-point lead, 43 percent to 39 percent with 18 percent for someone else or not voting. For those presented with the not-guilty scenario, Trump scored a 6-point lead over Biden, 44-38 percent with 18 percent for someone else or not voting.

Might not matter

The Marquette poll mirrors most national polls in the closeness of the contest, though those numbers might not be so important. That’s because the election — specifically, the Electoral College — is expected to be decided in seven battleground states, of which Wisconsin is one.

As Forbes pointed out this week, most reputable polls have Trump with a lead in most of those states, and some of the leads are significant.

In May, for example, the venerable Cook Political Report gave Trump a three-point lead across the seven swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Save for North Carolina, Biden won them all in 2020.

It was much the same news in a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, with Trump leading by four points across the seven states. 

Then, too, the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump winning five of six swing states. According to the poll, Trump now leads President Joe Biden by six points, 49-43 in Arizona; nine points, 50-41, in Georgia and 13 points, 51-38, in Nevada among likely voters in a two-person race. 

“When third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are added to the horserace, Trump’s lead grows to 9 in Arizona, to 14 in Nevada and drops to 8 in Georgia,” the poll states. “The three northern battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, remain very close as Biden tops Trump by a single point — 3 points with third party candidates in the race — in Michigan while Trump is up by 3 points in Pennsylvania and a single point in Wisconsin.”

Interestingly, Democrats running for the Senate outperform Biden as Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 3 in Arizona, Jacky Rosen is tied with Sam Brown in Nevada, Bob Casey holds a 2-point advantage over David McCormick in Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin tops Eric Hovde by 7 in Wisconsin, the poll observed. 

“The four Democratic Senate candidates outpace Biden by between one and 13 points,” the poll states.

You know the saying

It’s a familiar refrain, but the message coming out of all the polls was, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

“As three-quarters of likely voters in these six battleground states say the economy is no better than only fair or poor, large majorities in each state trust Donald Trump to do a better job on the country’s financial well-being than Joe Biden,” the Siena/Times poll stated.

The poll observed that abortion was not likely to save Biden, though most voters preferred abortion to be mostly legal.

“While abortion is cited as the third most important campaign issue behind the economy — number one —and immigration, by 64-27 percent battleground voters prefer abortion be always or mostly legal rather than always or mostly illegal,” the poll stated. “At least a plurality of voters — a majority in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — trust Biden more than Trump to do a better job on abortion.”

Perhaps the worst news of all for Biden comes from New York and California. To be sure, he leads in both states, but not by the margins he won by four years ago, and not by the margins of most recent Democratic presidential candidates.

In the May Sienna poll, Biden leads Trump in New York 47 percent to 38 percent, just a nine-point lead after crushing Trump there in 2020 by 23 points, 61 to 38. Trump is actually leading Biden on New York’s Long Island, 43-40. Another concerning fact for Biden is that two-thirds of all the respondents say that inflation is significantly affecting their quality of life.

In California, Biden is on top by 21 points, but even that is a nine-point drop from four years ago.

The demographics are troubling for Biden, too.

In the New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll, in its six defined battleground states, Trump and Biden are tied among Hispanic voters, while young voters aged 18-29 prefer Trump by four points in those battleground states. Both groups gave Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020.