Latest Marquette poll: Harris surges to lead

The latest Marquette Law School Poll national survey shows Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris leading the presidential race nationally, with 52 percent of support among of registered voters to 48 percent for former President Donald Trump.

Among likely voters, the poll stated, Harris widens the lead a little by 53 percent to 47 percent. The result includes the responses of voters who did not have a choice initially but who were then asked who they would vote for if they had to choose.

In the last Marquette survey, Trump and President Joe Biden were dead even at 50 percent apiece, with Trump edging ahead 51-49 percent among likely voters.

When the ballot includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent candidate Cornel West — all are likely to be the actual ballot — Harris leads solidly 47 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, with Kennedy following at 9 percent. The rest receive 2 percent or less.

Among likely voters, Harris moves to a 50 percent to 42 percent lead with Kennedy at 6 percent. That last survey result — likely voters with independent and third-party candidates included — is likely to be the most accurate and relevant.

Of course, Congress is on the line in November, too, and on a generic ballot, the Marquette survey gives the Democrats a better than even chance to flip the U.S. House of Representatives — with 52 percent saying they will vote for the Democrat and 48 percent saying they will opt for the Republican.

In the last survey, the generic congressional ballot was tied at 50-50 percent.

The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size was 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.

According to the poll, a large majority of Democrats said they were satisfied with Harris as the nominee, the poll stated, with 87 percent being very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee, 10 percent very or somewhat dissatisfied, and 3 percent who said they didn’t know. 

“A substantial majority of all registered voters, 80 percent, say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 13 percent say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee,” the poll stated. “Among Democrats, 87 percent say Biden should have withdrawn.”

Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 43 percent said Biden, 47 percent said Trump, and 11 percent said they don’t know, the poll reported.

“A majority, 56 percent, say Biden should not resign and should serve out his term as president, while 31 percent say he should resign and 13 percent don’t know,” the poll stated.

When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 58 percent said Trump would definitely or probably win, while 42 percent said Harris would definitely or probably win.

“The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than with Harris as the candidate,” the poll stated. “Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 69 percent say Trump would definitely or probably win, while 19 percent say Biden would win and 12 percent say they don’t know.”

A rush of favorable publicity has apparently helped Harris’s favorability standings in the poll.

Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris has seen her favorable rating rise to 47 percent (with 50 percent unfavorable) from 35 percent (and 59 percent unfavorable) among registered voters, with 3% saying they haven’t heard enough. 

“This July poll is the best net favorability rating in Marquette polling for Harris since she became vice president,” the poll stated.

Harris is soaring in other metrics as well. At Polymarket, the prediction market platform where users bet on all sorts of things using cryptocurrency, from politics to the Olympics, Harris and Trump are tied, with each given a 49 percent chance of winning. On the day Harris entered the race, Polymarket gave a Trump a 59 percent-38 percent advantage. 

The model of polling guru Nate Silver, which is not based on the markets but on polls and a variety of underlying factors and history, had Harris leading with a 52.8 percent chance to win the election to Trump’s 46.6 percent. Silver had previously given Trump a 70-percent chance to defeat Biden.

Other candidates likely to be on ballot

In what could be another blow to Trump’s chances in the Badger state, four independent presidential candidates filed signatures and paperwork with the Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) last week to request that their names be placed on the ballot in Wisconsin for President of the United States.

Under Wisconsin law, according to the WEC, independent presidential candidates can get on the ballot by filing a minimum of 2,000 valid signatures of Wisconsin electors on nomination papers, as well as a Declaration of Candidacy form for both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

Among those filing paperwork were Cornel West and his vice-presidential pick Melina Abdullah; Claudia De la Cruz and her vice-presidential pick Karina Garcia; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his running mate Nicole Shanahan; and Shiva Ayyadurai and running mate Crystal Ellis. 

Copies of filed nomination papers will be available after staff have performed their review on the WEC’s data website. WEC staff said they would review petitions to determine their sufficiency and to ensure candidates meet all ballot qualifications. All are currently in pending status and have not yet been WEC certified for the General Election.

The deadline to file a nomination paper challenge to an independent candidate for president was last Friday.

The Commission plans to meet virtually in open session on Aug. 27 to consider each candidate’s paperwork, any nomination paper challenges filed, and approve placement on the ballot for independent presidential candidates.

Richard Moore is the author of “Dark State” and may be reached at richardd3d.substack.com.