Trump leads Biden in new Marquette poll

Recent polls show that nonvoters overwhelmingly support Donald Trump over Joe Biden for president — with potentially strong backing for an independent candidate — and a new Marquette Law School Poll national survey buttresses parts of those findings, showing Trump with a massive lead among those less than certain to vote, while Biden leads slightly among those certain to vote.

Even among those certain to vote, Biden’s edge is precarious in the Marquette poll, leading Trump by only 51-49 percent. Among all registered voters in the survey, Trump leads 51-48. 

But for those who say they are less than certain to vote, Trump leads Biden 62-37 percent. The findings are reflective of an early September poll by USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of unlikely voters — those who are eligible to vote but say they probably won’t. 

In that poll, registered voters who said they probably wouldn’t vote favored Trump 32-13 percent, with 27 percent saying they would support a third party or independent candidate. Unregistered but eligible people who say they won’t likely vote favored Trump 28-15 percent, with 27 percent preferring a third party or independent candidate.

Those numbers are ominous for Joe Biden, especially with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announcing this week that he will run as an independent.

In the Marquette poll, those who say they are absolutely certain to vote make up 80 percent of registered voters and give Biden an edge, the poll states, while the 20 percent of the sample who say they are less than certain to vote strongly favor Trump. 

“Biden is also favored among those who pay the most attention to politics, while Trump has the advantage among those less engaged by politics,” the poll stated.

In contrast, the poll continued, those who say they are very or somewhat enthusiastic about the 2024 elections favor Trump, while those with less enthusiasm favor Biden. Trump leads Biden 54-46 among very enthusiastic voters; 53-47 among somewhat enthusiastic voters; while Biden takes the lead among those are not at all enthusiastic or not too enthusiastic about the election, scoring a 53-45 lead.

The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race among registered voters since May, the poll reported. The poll also scored Biden’s chances against Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who still is running second in GOP primary polls.

“In a choice between Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 51 percent to Biden’s 48 percent among registered voters,” the poll stated. “Like against Trump, Biden holds a small edge among likely voters, with 51 percent compared to 48 percent for DeSantis.” 

Reluctant voters

But, as other polls have shown, Marquette says a significant share of voters were initially reluctant to choose between Biden or Trump. 

“The share of reluctant voters had remained around 20-25 percent since the head-to-head question was first posed in November 2021,” the poll analysis stated. “In the current poll, it has declined modestly, with 12 percent who say they would vote for someone else and 4 percent who say they wouldn’t vote.”

When pressed to choose, the poll continued, almost all respondents make a choice of Biden or Trump. 

“In September, among initially reluctant registered voters, 10 percent said they would definitely pick Trump and 32 percent said they would probably vote for Trump, while 15 percent would definitely vote for Biden and 41 percent would probably support Biden,” the poll states.

The poll looked at the characteristics of reluctant voters by combining its May, July, and September polls.

“Strength of party identification plays a strong role in reluctance to choose Biden or Trump,” the poll reported. “Over 60 percent of independents are reluctant to choose, but under 15 percent of either Republicans or Democrats are similarly reluctant. Independents who lean to a party are much less reluctant than independents who say they are not closer to either party, but they remain more reluctant than are partisans.”

And those who follow politics most of the time are less reluctant than those who pay less attention, the poll reported.

“Younger voters are more likely to express reluctance to choose between Biden and Trump, as are non-white voters,” the poll also found.

Finally, Marquette found, feelings about the candidates themselves are powerful. 

“A substantial 22 percent say they have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, and this group is overwhelmingly reluctant to choose either candidate,” the poll stated. “Those with a favorable view of Trump and unfavorable view of Biden are especially less likely to be reluctant. Those favorable to Biden and unfavorable to Trump are somewhat more reluctant, though less than the overall average reluctance.”

The independents

The wild card in all the numbers is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent bid, which Politico, citing recent poll numbers, said this week could be the strongest independent bid for president since Ross Perot’s 1992 campaign.

Politico cited two recent polls showing Kennedy receiving 14 percent of the vote in a three-way race between Kennedy, Biden, and Trump. 

In an Echelon Insights poll released in September, Trump won the three-way matchup with 40 percent to 36 percent for Biden and 14 percent for Kennedy. Ten percent were undecided.

In a Reuters/IPSOS poll released last week, Trump won 33 percent to 31 percent for Biden and 14 percent for Kennedy.

The question for the Trump and Biden campaigns is, who does Kennedy threaten the most? By all accounts, that’s a hard question to answer.

On the one hand, as Politico points out, Kennedy has a higher favorability among Republican voters than he does among Democratic voters: “59 percent of Republicans said they have a favorable opinion of Kennedy in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, compared to 40 percent of Democrats,” Politico stated.

Then, too, a Zogby poll conducted for Kennedy’s Super PAC — and he will be a well-heeled candidate, with already $10 million in the bank — found much the same numbers as the Reuters and Echelon polls (Trump, 38; Biden, 38; Kennedy, 19) but the poll found Kennedy taking more votes from Trump than Biden.

Still, others counter that while Kennedy may have more Republican followers than Democratic admirers, there is strong loyalty for Trump in the Republican ranks and widespread discontent for Biden in the Democratic ranks, which could make it easier for Kennedy to peel sympathetic Democratic voters away in the general election.

From Kennedy’s perspective, he aims to spoil the election for both Trump and Biden.

“The Democrats are terrified I’ll spoil the election for President Biden,” Kennedy said Monday. “The Republicans fear I’ll spoil it for President Trump. The truth is — they’re both right!”

Richard Moore is the author of “Dark State” and may be reached at richardd3d.substack.com.