Coaches seek change to football playoff qualification model

For years the path to the WIAA football playoffs was simple — post a .500 or better record in your conference and essentially be assured of a spot in the WIAA tournament. 

A proposal being pushed by the Wisconsin Football Coaches Association would change that, introducing a computer formula it says would make the process of determining which teams make the postseason, and where they are seeded once they get there, more fair.

That proposal is slated to be taken up at the committee level of the WIAA this month and, if approved there, could make its way to the WIAA Board of Control as early as next month for possible implementation for the 2025 season. 

The proposal came about after coaches expressed frustration with how the 2024 playoffs were set. WisSports.net reported in early December that the WIAA admitted that a clerical error in the way it applied a tiebreaker in its current playoff qualification criteria. The error resulted in the exclusion of Madison West and Greenfield from its playoff field, and incorrectly awarded playoff spots to Madison Edgewood and Pewaukee. 

Additionally, there have been several issues regarding seeding since 2021, when the WIAA went to a computer-based seeding program as opposed to having the coaches in each playoff grouping seed their bracket. A seven-seed (D.C. Everest) and an eight-seed (Belleville) each reached the state semifinals this past season.

“I think the biggest issue was the seeding that happened in different divisions and coaches wanted to find a fair way to assess teams and to make sure that we got the seeding right,” said Rhinelander High School football coach Aaron Kraemer, who also serves as a district representative for the WFCA. 

The plan is overwhelmingly supported by the states high school football coaches. In a WFCA survey conducted following the 2024 season, 350 of the 400 coaches who responded (87.5%) said they were in favor of moving forward with the proposal. 

The fundamental differences in the proposed Wisconsin Football Playoff Matrix from the current system, in terms of qualifying for the playoffs are multi-fold. First, divisions will be set based on enrollment prior to the start of the season, rather than determined once the playoff qualifiers are set. Essentially teams will go from trying to be one of 224 teams to qualify among seven divisions to one of 32 teams to qualify within their own division. 

Second, non-conference games would carry the same weight as conference games under the new system. Previously, conference games carried the lion’s share while non-conference games played only a minuscule role in breaking ties among potential playoff qualifiers. 

Thirdly, each win a team receives will carry a different weight in terms of playoff qualification based on two factors — each defeated opponent’s divisional placement and each defeated opponent’s strength of victory.

Finally, once the playoff field is set, the same formula will be used to seed the field with criteria in place to minimize travel distance within each eight-team regional grouping.

The system was devised by Edgewood coaches Andy LaVoy and Jesse Norris, in conjunction with the WFCA executive board, and based upon the playoff matrix used by the Ohio High School Athletic Association (OSHAA). 

“I have a lot of respect for (WFCA President) Brian Kaminsky and for heading this and sending it to the coaches association and getting feedback. Working with the guys from Edgewood, it’s hard not to believe in something that they’ve shared with us,” Kraemer said.

How it works

Divisions would be assigned prior to the season with schools assigned preliminarily assigned to one of seven divisions based on enrollment, with possible alterations up or down based on the WIAA Performance Factor. In a hypothetical example of the 2024 season compiled by LaVoy, each division would have had 51 or 52 teams vying for 32 playoff spots. 

The GNC would have had six teams in Division 3 (Antigo, Lakeland, Medford, Merrill, Rhinelander, Wausau East), one in Division 4 (Mosinee) and one in Division 5 (Tomahawk).

During the season, teams earn Tier 1 points based on the divisional placement for each team it defeats — with wins over Division 1 schools earning 6 1/2 points, Division 2 schools earning 6 points and dropping in half-point increments to 3 1/2 points to wins over D7 schools. Those points are divided by the number of games a team plays in a season to determine a Tier 1 score.

Under this formula, Rhinelander would have had a Tier 1 score of 1.78 points last season as it earned 16 Tier 1 points with wins over D3 schools Hayward and Wausau East and D4 school Ashland in a nine-game season.

That total is then added to the Tier 2 score, which is calculated by dividing the total of defeated opponents’ Tier 1 points by 9. Rhinelander would have earned 4.83 Tier 2 points, with its win over 6-3 Wausau East carrying the most weight (3.33 points). 

The top 32 teams in each division at season’s end make the playoffs. Under LaVoy’s calculations, Rhinelander (3-6) would have been ranked 33rd and would have been the first team out of the D3 playoffs while 2-7 Wilmot would have made the postseason despite having a seven-game losing streak in the middle of the season. Wilmot’s wins came in Week 1 over D1 opponents Kenosha Bradford (3-6) and six-win D3 opponent Burlington in the final week of the regular season. Those carried enough weight to vault it ahead of five 3-6 teams, four 4-5 teams and even one 5-4 team in the final rankings.  

That is enough to give some coaches pause reguarding the proposal.

“What happens if a team has three wins but play in a conference or have a non-conference win or two over teams one division or more higher and those teams have successful seasons and that three-win team gets into the playoffs compared to a five-win team who plays conference schools one division or more below,” Lakeland coach Dan Barutha hypothesized when asked by our sister paper, The Lakeland Times, about the proposal. “I’m curious to see what is going to happen with this proposal moving forward because not all questions were answered through the WFCA zoom sessions.”

LaVoy calculated rankings for the last three seasons. Rhinelander would have still made the playoffs in 2023 and would have missed the playoffs in 2022. In the GNC, all teams that qualified under the old system would have made the 2024 playoffs under LaVoy’s system. Tomahawk (3-6), which missed the playoffs last year, would have also qualified in Division 5. 

Changing strategy?

Because of cases like Wilmot’s, the natural question is would teams change how they approach scheduling non-conference games, given their increased bearing on playoff qualification. 

“There are questions still existing over non-conference scheduling, and we’ll have to see how things play out if this proposal goes through with how we do things moving forward to give ourselves the best opportunity at the postseason as possible,” Bartuha said.

At first blush, two potential schools of thought would be to target Division 1 and 2 schools that have historically struggled as a means of building up Tier 1 points, or seek out a stronger school at the D5, 6 or 7 level that could rack up Tier 2 points once it gets into its conference season. 

“It’s a little bit more strategy of who we’re going to get for non-conference and to make sure to win those games and that they count for your playoff seed,” Kraemer said. “For the most part, what you want to do is you want to find teams that are competitive to start — maybe one game that’s very similar in your division and the team that’s a little bit stronger, whether that’s up or down a division. That’s kind of up to up to the coach, but I think what you really need to get early on in the season with your guys you need to have that competitive nature with the team. You need to see a playoff-level team early on to really set the bar for you guys.” 

Wilmot’s case was a notable exception in the three-years of data that LaVoy calculated. In that time five 2-7 teams would have made the playoffs and even one 1-8 team made the postseason. That 1-8 team would have been Lakeside Lutheran in D4 last season — though it should be noted all the teams behind Lakeside Lutheran were either 2-7 or 1-8. On only two occasions would a team finish above .500 and have missed the playoffs. Both instances would have taken place in Division 1 —Janesville Craig (5-4, 2023) and D.C. Everest (5-4, 2022).

Though the permutations may lead to some late season uncertainty regarding what a team may or may not need to happen to qualify for the tournament, Kraemer said winning takes care of itself.

“If you’re a .500 team in the conference you feel like you’ve got a pretty good shot of making it in,” he said. “I think that’s the point I’m trying to get across. Once you get to that .500 threshold, or you’re close to it, you’re feeling like you’re going to have an opportunity.” 

Seeding

Another area where the WFCA claims the new system will have a leg up on the current system is how playoff groupings are determined and seeded. 

Under the proposal, after the field of 32 in each division is set, the field is further divided into eight, four-team tiers. The top four teams overall in points would receive No. 1 seeds, the next four would receive No. 2 seeds and so on. Once the No. 1 seeds are established, the Nos. 2-4 seeds would be assigned to a region where the group’s cumulative total drive time to the No. 1 seed is minimized, the plan states. Nos. 5-8 seeds would then be added to regional groupings prioritizing the shortest possible trip to its Level 1 opponent. 

Currently the WIAA arbitrarily assigned schools into eight-team regionals, “with priority given to having an equal number of conference champions in each section,” it states in its tournament procedures. From there, the groupings are seeded by computer based on a number of criteria, among which are “historical conference playoff win percentage” and “historical team playoff win percentage.” The WIAA does not state in its regulations how much weight each criterion is given. 

Those factors did not do the Hodags any favors the two times they have made the postseason since computerized seeding went into effect in 2021. That year Rhinelander, despite an 8-1 record, was seeded fifth in its draw and sent to fourth-seeded Baraboo, where it lost 13-7 in Level 1. In 2023, the Hodags drew a 6-seed but were sent more than 3 1/2 hours away and were blown out by third-seeded Onalaska. 

“I wonder what that would’ve looked like back in 2021 with that with that group if that would’ve changed things for us where we might’ve been,” Kraemer said. “Nothing against that seeding of that year but I feel like maybe we should have a home playoff game. I wonder how that would’ve shaken out in that in that year, but I’m glad that we were continuing to look at it.” 

LaVoy’s data does not go back to the 2021 season but in 2023, Rhinelander would have been a No. 7 seed and would have traveled to Mosinee instead of Onalaska. It’s not a perfect system, however. Lakeland would have been a seven seed and forced to travel to second-seeded La Crosse Logan this past fall under LaVoy’s calculations.

Lakeland Times sports writer Brett LaBore contributed to this report. Jeremy Mayo may be reached at [email protected].