DNR offers up fall hunting outlook

Each year the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) puts together a hunting season outlook. Those forecasts look at conditions for several animals and what hunters and trappers might expect going into the coming season.

Deer

For the Northern Forest Zone, the outlook mentions that deer should be relatively healthy and that fawn recruitment should be strong based on the winter of 2023-24 being one of the mildest on record. This comes on the heals of the especially tough winter of 2022-23. That winter saw deep snow and cold temperatures, pushing the Winter Severity Index in some places into the Severe ranking. These types of winters not only weaken deer and cause them to be less healthy, but these conditions also favor predators, as deer, overall, tend to be less mobile in deep snow. All of these things worked together to severely decrease hunter success in even seeing deer in some places in the Northwoods. 

While the outlook seems to want to make the decreased harvest of 2023 to be an anomaly perpetrated by weather, hunters have come forward at listening sessions across the North to express their concerns over the overall trend of decreasing deer numbers in the Northern Forest Zone.

“We always encourage hunters to get out and scout their hunting locations early to see what’s changed,” the outlook said. “This fall, we likely won’t see the generational acorn crop like we saw last year. There’s also a lot of timber cutting going on across the Northwoods. There are lots of factors that change every year that can lead to small changes in deer movement, and capitalizing on these is key. Look for edge habitats, thick brush lines between food and bedding areas and pinpoint focus areas like a forest opening that deer are likely to visit.”

Upland birds

According to DNR game bird specialist Taylor Finger, turkeys, too, benefitted from the mild winter last year. He said 2024 nesting and brood-rearing seasons had been above average as well. He expected good numbers of turkeys, pheasants and ruffed grouse for hunters due to those two things.

However, for species such as ruffed grouse, which are the most widely distributed nonmigratory game birds in North America, are challenged due to lack of early successional forest habitat. 

Turkey hunters will receive one harvest authorization with the purchase of a fall turkey license of Conservation Patron license. Bonus turkey harvest authorizations went on sale on Aug. 10. 

Waterfowl

Finger also prepared the waterfowl fall hunting forecast. He stated spring surveys indicated “stable population numbers and habitat conditions” for migratory birds. This, he said, should bode well for waterfowl hunters this fall. 

The continental duck population was estimated at 32.3 million birds, which is 7 percent lower than the 2022 estimate and 9 percent lower than the long-term average, which was 35.5 million ducks. Breeding estimates, too, were down. DNR waterfowl surveys showed an estimated 3.7 percent decrease from the 2023 estimate. However, this was still above the 1973-2023 long term average. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services breeding population estimates will not be available until the end of this month. 

The outlook gave a snapshot of various waterfowl populations as well. Mallards, which are the most abundant ducks in Wisconsin, make up 32 percent of the state’s harvest annually. Their continental  population estimates are down 18 percent compared to 2023, and are down 23 percent of the long-term average. The breeding population in Wisconsin is estimated to be 146,561, which is lower than both the 2023 estimate and the long-term average.

Wood duck populations, the outlook said, are similar to last year. Those populations remain above the long-term average.

Woodcock populations are reported to remain stable in the state. However, when looking at the national and regional level populations, there have been some long-term declines. It was reported that each fall approximately 16,000 hunters head out to target this species, harvesting a rough average of 35,000 birds throughout the season. Wisconsin, Finger’s report stated, remains a top-ranked destination for wood cock hunters and harvest numbers. 

In the area of mourning doves, the USFWS said hunters harvested over 8 million birds in the 2022-23 season. In Wisconsin, this is a relatively new hunting opportunity. State-planted dove fields can be a solid option for new and seasoned hunters alike to find success in the upcoming mourning dove season, the outlook stated.

Resident goose number remain high in Wisconsin. This, combined with the country’s overall goose population in the millions, hunters should expect a good year in the field, with an estimated 47,000 hunters taking advantage of the opportunity to bag a goose in Wisconsin this year. This year’s population estimate for goose is similar to last year, but up significantly, over 40 percent, from the long-term average. 

He went on to say the Northern Duck Zone will continue to open one week before the Southern Zone to offer more better opportunity for northern hunters during early migration and before the winter freeze. The Open Water Zone, the outlook said, will continue to be open two weeks later than the Southern Zone. This is done in an effort to increase hunting opportunities on Lake Michigan. The outlook reminded hunters to check their season dates before heading out.

Bear

DNR large carnivore specialist Randy Johnson compiled the bear season outlook for the state. Wisconsin continues to be a top destination for bear hunters, and hunters looking for a shot at harvesting one of the largest carnivores in the state remains strong. With abundant bear populations, Wisconsin hunters have a good deal about which to be excited with this year’s hunt. 

Johnson said natural food conditions are variable every year and it is unlikely the state will see the same high acorn production as it did last year. This will likely tip the needle more toward favoring hunters. Baits become less attractive to bears when natural food production is high. Conversely, bear baits can be more attractive when there is less other/natural food available for bears. 

The number of preference points needed in Zones A and B remains high, at 10 and 11, respectively. Zones C through F require far fewer, with Zone C the highest at three preference points. The number of applicants for this year’s bear hunt was 33,733 with a total number of licenses awarded at 11,501. This should equate to 3,850 animals harvested, based on average hunter success numbers. Last year, 12,760 licenses were awarded with a total harvest of 3,005 bears over the course of the season, which includes 25 bears taken through the Learn to Hunt Program, 30 Ojibwe Tribal harvests and 26 bears taken on agricultural damage tags.

Beckie Gaskill may be reached via email at [email protected]