So far, the Packers are who we thought they were

It’s funny how the NFL can make fans overreact. 

Packers fans were convinced the Jordan Love was the second coming of Aaron Rodgers (or maybe the third coming of Brett Favre?) after Love led the Packers from a 17-0 fourth quarter deficit to defeat the New Orleans Saints 18-17 in Week 3. Why not? He showed plenty of moxie in his first home start at Lambeau Field. What’s more, at 2-1 at that point, the word “playoffs” was on the tips of many of our tongues. 

Fast forward four weeks and many of those same fans are ready to leave Love and the Packers for dead. Green Bay has lost three straight games and the last two have ended with Love throwing game-sealing interceptions. 

Now, the word “playoffs” seems more like the famous Jim Mora Sr. rant, as in, “Don’t talk about playoffs! You kidding me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game.”

However, reflecting on the first six games of the Packers’ season as a whole, another rant comes to mind — Dennis Green’s, “They are who we thought they were” diatribe.

There’s no banging a microphone at the podium here, though, no claiming that we let a team off the hook. Simply, six games in, the Packers are pretty much right where I expected them to be.

Going back to my preseason prediction column, I said there was a decent chance the Packers could be above .500 at this point of the season, considering a less than brutal slate the start. That’s inherently true. Though the Packers sit 2-4, they’re 1-3 in one-score games. Flip that stat and the Packers are 4-2 and the narrative around the team is completely different. 

I said I’d be looking at how the team progressed during the season. With injuries and inconsistencies on offense, a struggling run defense and special teams that let the Packers down on Sunday, there’s plenty of room to grow there over the final 11 games. 

I also said to expect, “the inevitable noise the talking heads will make, proclaiming new quarterback Jordan Love a failure after one bad game.” That sure sounds like where we’re at right now. 

If you recall, in that column, I used 2008 as the rubric of which to judge this year’s team. That season, after all, was Aaron Rodgers’s first as starting quarterback for the Packers. A quick glance at that season reveals some uncanny similarities. 

Rodgers, like Love, won his home opener and the team had plenty of expectations after jumping out to a 2-0 start. Green Bay was 4-3 when it hit its bye that year but then lost seven of its next eight and finished the year 6-10. 

You want to know how many games the Packers played that were decided by one score? Eight. You want to know the Packers’ record in those games? 1-7, including a pair of overtime losses.

That’s why I’m not ready to hit the panic button just because the Packers have now lost three games they could’ve/would’ve/should’ve won. If anything, I’m more troubled that it has pretty much taken a half for the Packers’ offense to find any sort of rhythm in its last four games. But still, winning in the NFL is a learning process. Rodgers’ Packers in 2008 didn’t do a great job of finding a way to win those close ones, but history shows things turned out OK for them. 

To be fair, the one thing that 2008 season had for it that 2023 hasn’t yet is who the Packers lost to in those close contests. Of the seven one-score games the Packers lost in 2008 only one of them came against a team that finished the year with a losing record (Jacksonville). The three teams the Packers have lost close games to this year have a combine record of three games under .500. It will be interesting to see how competitive the Packers are in their next three games when the quality of the competition increases. 

As for the inevitable Rodgers to Love comparison, Rodgers completed 63.6% of his passes for 4,038 yards with 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 93.8 in 2008. So far Love has completed 57.5% of his passes this year, has a rating of 79.4 and is on pace to throw for 3,502 yards with 28 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. The numbers say advantage Rodgers, for now, but I’ll be interested to see what they are at season’s end. 

Ultimately, through six games, the Packers are about where I thought they would be — showing promise at times, growing pains at others. That’s why, going back to the start of the season, I said I had low expectations for the Packers this year. I’m OK with the Packers missing the playoffs this year, as long as they are making progress that will set them up for success in 2024 and beyond. 

The jury is still out on that one —as it should be with such little evidence to go on at this point.

Jeremy Mayo may be reached at [email protected].