The easy, and hard, way for Rhinelander to get into the playoffs

There are two paths for the Rhinelander High School football team to qualify for the WIAA playoffs and one is much less complicated than the other.

The Hodags control their own destiny, and a win tonight against Lakeland will guarantee that Rhinelander is among the 224 teams still playing next Friday night. A loss does not eliminate Rhinelander, though it will make for a restless night as the Hodags wait for the playoff field to be announced tomorrow morning.

To try to grasp the situation the Hodags face is a exercise in trying to understand the WIAA’s multi-step playoff procedure.

For starters, in most instances, only what has taken place during conference play will count. The primary pathway into the playoffs is to finish above .500 in conference play. Through Week 8 of the season, there are 161 teams that have done just that — earned at least four conference victories and ensured a winning conference record. That leaves 63 spots to fill the field. Fifty-two teams are currently 3-3 in their conference and with 18 of those teams facing each other in Week 9, that’s nine more teams that will be assured of hitting four-win mark. 

That leaves 54 spots remaining. Of the remaining 34 teams sitting at 3-3, 15 of them will play teams that have sub-.500 conference records, while 19 will face off against teams with winning conference records that are already in the playoff field. 

Meanwhile there are another 57 teams that are 2-4 in league play. Ten of those teams face each other this week, meaning five teams are guaranteed to play their way onto the bubble at 3-4. Additionally, 16 2-4 teams play teams that either have one win or are winless in conference play. Thirty 2-4 teams will face teams with records of .500 and above in league play. 

All of that means — in a perfect world where there are no upsets — 185 teams would finish at or above .500 in league play. That would leave 39 spots open for 49 teams that finish 3-4 while 35 teams would finish 2-5 and be out of playoff contention. 

Who gets those final spots? That’s were things get complicated. 

According to the WIAA, the pool of 3-4 teams will be ranked by the combined conference win-loss percentage of the conference opponents they have defeated. In Rhinelander’s case, the Hodags are guaranteed to have an opponents winning percentage of at least .1904 (4-17) because two teams Rhinelander beat in league play, Hayward and Ashland, face each other in Week 9. That number would jump to .2381 should Merrill pull off a monumental and unlikely upset of GNC champion Mosinee.

From there, if three or more teams remain tied — and they likely will — ties are further broken by head-to-head results, results against the conference champion, record against teams in the field, defeated opponents conference winning percentage, defeated opponents overall winning percentage, overall winning percentage (including non-conference games), first half points allowed per game through Week 8 of the season in conference games and, as a method of last resort, a coin flip.

While the results of any and all games across the state tonight could move the needle on one of the tiebreaking metrics for or against any specific team, the most general rule for Hodag fans will be to root against teams that sit at 2-4 in their respective conferences. 

The fewer teams that move from 2-4 to 3-4 will increase the odds of teams going from 3-3 to 3-4 of getting in. More specifically, there are eight games this week pitting teams at 3-3 in their conference against teams that are 2-4. Those games are:

• Loyal (3-3) at Pacelli (2-4), Thursday

• Pittsville (2-4) at Abbotsford (3-3), Thursday

• River Ridge (3-3) at Benton/Scales Mound/Shullsburg (2-2)

• Eau Claire North (2-4) at River Falls (3-3)

• Arrowhead (3-3) at Oconomowoc (2-4)

• Oshkosh West (2-4) at Fond du Lac (3-3)

• Howards Grove (3-3) at Random Lake (2-4)

• Clintonville (3-3) at Tomahawk (2-4)

While wins by 2-4 teams in these games would decrease the number of guaranteed qualifiers by one in each instance, they would also increase the number of teams on the bubble by two, as both the winning team and losing team would finish 3-4 in league play. 

In essence, each win by a 2-4 in those instances would increase the number of bubble teams that miss the playoffs.

The final field for the WIAA playoffs will be revealed at 10 a.m. Saturday in a TV-style selection show that will air WAOW (Ch. 9) and several other stations state-wide.

Jeremy Mayo may be reached at [email protected].