April 6, 2023 at 2:55 p.m.
A new era in state politics
Protasiewicz sweeps by Kelly in state Supreme Court race; Schiek defeats Burns in solid win for Oneida County judge
The liberal and Democratic-backed candidate for the state Supreme Court swept to a huge victory over her conservative opponent in Tuesday's spring election - likely a harbinger of things to come, as liberals recaptured the majority on the state's high court and Democrats won their fifth out of the last six major statewide races, this one going away.
Milwaukee County circuit judge Janet Protasiewicz defeated former Supreme Court justice Daniel Kelly by a 56-to-44% margin, winning 1,021,370 votes to Kelly's 818,286 with almost all votes counted. Protasiewicz's victory gives liberals a 4-3 Supreme Court majority, the first majority they have had in 15 years.
In an important local judicial contest, in Oneida County, district attorney Michael Schiek scored a robust win over judge Mary Roth Burns, whom Gov. Tony Evers had appointed to fill out the term of Patrick O'Melia, who retired. Schiek won 6,636 votes to Burns's 5,697, or a margin of 54 to 46%.
The liberal Burns could not find any coattails with Protasiewicz's win, scrapping out tiny victories in the city of Rhinelander and, surprisingly, in Woodruff, but lost handily in the rest of the Lakeland area and in Minocqua particularly, as well as in Sugar Camp and Three Lakes.
In fact, Burns collected almost 600 fewer votes in the county than Protasiewicz did, while Schiek came within 100 votes of Kelly's margin.
In the Supreme Court race, Protasiewicz said the results vindicated her belief that Wisconsinites were ready for common sense and fairness on the Supreme Court.
"They were ready to put aside the partisanship and extremism, to have impartiality and a court that makes decisions based on the law, not a political agenda," Protasiewicz said. "Throughout my career I've seen our judicial system up close and I believe in something that is universal to Wisconsinites all across our state and that is: everyone should get a fair shot to demand justice - and not feel like the thumb is on the scale against them."
Protasiewicz said the results meant two very important and special things.
"First, it means that Wisconsin voters have made their voice heard," she said. "They've chosen to reject partisan extremism in their state."
And second, Protasiewicz said, it means that democracy will always prevail.
"Too many have tried to overturn the will of the people in our state," she said. "Today's result shows that Wisconsinites believe in democracy and the democratic process."
For his part, Kelly thanked all those whom he said tirelessly worked to preserve the rule of law and the constitution.
"Your passion for maintaining your liberties was inspiring and impressive," Kelly said. "I will never forget your commitment to these foundational principles."
Still, Kelly said, he was disappointed to learn that those who wish to maintain constitutional order are in the minority of voters.
"Judicial campaigns are supposed to be about constitutional principles and legal scholarship, which has been the focus of my conversations with the people of Wisconsin," he said. "Unfortunately, my opponent made her campaign about cynical appeals to political passions, serial lies, and a blatant disregard for judicial ethics and the integrity of the court. But the judgment of the people of Wisconsin is paramount, and this is what they have chosen."
Kelly quoted Benjamin Franklin from 236 years ago, when he had helped create the republic.
"But he warned it would be so only 'if we can keep it,'" Kelly said. "Keeping it has just gotten a little more challenging. I wish Wisconsin the best of luck. I think it will need it."
The context
Abortion was a central issue in the Supreme Court race, as Protasiewicz emphasized her belief in abortion rights throughout the campaign. A lawsuit challenging the state's 1849 abortion ban - which prohibits all abortions except to save the life of the mother - filed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Democratic attorney general Josh Kaul, is likely headed to the Supreme Court.
Indeed, most observers labeled the race as a referendum on abortion after state Republicans refused to allow a referendum on the actual issue to go to the voters. But many other conservative policy triumphs in the years since Scott Walker was elected governor in 2010 are potentially in the crosshairs with liberals retaking the court majority, from redistricting to right-to-work laws to the constitutionality of school choice.
Beyond the specific policy questions, there are the politics of demographics to consider, and the significance of Protasiewicz's margin of victory.
Over the past several statewide elections, the margins have been very slim in what is considered to be a purple state. Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and lost in 2020 by razor-thin margins; Scott Walker lost in 2018 by a razor-thin margin; conservative-perceived Brian Hagedorn won a tight race for the Supreme Court in 2019; Ron Johnson won reelection last year by a single point.
Liberal Rebecca Dallett was elected to the high court in 2018 with about the same margin as Protasiewicz but conservatives did not mount a serious challenge in that race, for whatever reason, and in 2020, Jill Karofsky beat Kelly by double digits, though that race was held the same day as the Democratic presidential primary with an energized Democratic turnout.
As these contests have unfolded, Dane County's political power has been increasing, as its population growth has exploded without any dilution of the Democratic vote - the fastest population growth in the state - while Republicans have been bleeding support in the suburbs in southeastern Wisconsin, their traditional stronghold.
In short, those who think the election was more than a referendum on abortion may have a point. Since and including 2016, Republicans have won five statewide races; the Democrats, nine. That's nearly twice as many as the GOP, but the more recent trend has been even more Democratic: Since and including 2020, the Democrats have won five major races, the Republicans one, that being Ron Johnson.
The bottom line is, the Democratic trend is more than about abortion, and, if the trend line continues, Wisconsin is fast becoming a blue state again, if it isn't already.
On other issues, voters approved referenda questions changing how judges determine cash bail for people charged with violent crimes and they also supported an advisory referendum approving of work requirements for recipients of taxpayer-funded benefits.
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