October 20, 2021 at 10:53 a.m.
Something to prove
Hodags hope deep playoff run begins with road upset tonight
Something to prove
The Hodags certainly did not get any respect from the WIAA when playoff groupings were drawn and computerized seeds were handed out. Despite an 8-1 record and the No. 8 ranking in the WisSports.net D3 coaches poll, the Hodags find themselves on the road at 7-2 Baraboo tonight to start the WIAA tournament.
Rhinelander coach Aaron Kraemer admitted he, like many Hodag supporters, was first dumbfounded and then angered about the situation his team was put in to start the playoffs. For he and his team, that anger quickly turned to motivation to prove that Rhinelander, and the Great Northern Conference, are better than they are perceived around the state.
"You can say whatever you want about the WIAA and proximity and ranking and whatever. We're not thinking about that. We're thinking about we get to play Baraboo," Kraemer said. "The kids are ready. They're excited. They have a little chip on their shoulder. They're a little but upset, and it's not that whiny upset about our circumstance. It's an upset about disrespect and they believe they deserve a little bit more respect. It's time for us to go and show the rest of the state that we do."
Despite a difficult draw - Baraboo was ranked No. 1 in the D3 pool through Week 5 until a couple of late losses knocked them out of the top 10 and into third in the Badger Small Conference - the Hodags believe they have the opportunity to embark on a special journey tonight and beyond, if the pieces fall into place and the team rises to the occasion.
"We see those opportunities and we can't wait for the opportunities," Kraemer said. "Hopefully, it ends up at Camp Randall (for the WIAA state championship game). I know that's a big dream but, at the same time, if we do the small things right, big dreams turn into realities."
It's a much different mindset than what the program had in 2019 when it clinched a playoff spot in the final week of the regular season and then was blown out at River Falls in Level 1 of the WIAA Division 3 tournament.
Rhinelander got an albatross off its shoulders last year, winning both of their games in the WIAA Culminating Event - which count as playoff victories in the official WIAA record books though the season did not end with the crowning of any state champions.
Those experiences, and a battle-tested group of seniors, give Rhinelander a totally different outlook this time around in the postseason.
"These seniors have been challenged since the beginning," Kraemer said. "Their freshman year they played against a huge D.C. Everest squad. They played against Kingsford. They were a great JV team together and they've come up through the ranks. Some of these guys have played three straight years of varsity football. They've been through these games. They've been through these challenges and I don't think they are accepting of the fact that we can lose. They just believe we are going to win."
Tonight that means a long road trip into a hostile environment. Rhinelander is 2-1 on such occasions this year, beating Medford and Ashland, but falling to Mosinee. Kraemer said he doesn't know how tonight's game will play out but one thing is certain - Rhinelander will have to respond to some sort of adversity this evening.
"Can we handle, two, three yards a carry," Kraemer asked, rhetorically. "Can we handle punting the football every once in a while to gain field position? Can we handle a defensive struggle and be able to then bounce back and put points in the board? Do we understand that every single play can change the complexity of a game - either positively or negatively? If that is the case, we can win a playoff game."
Here are five things to watch going into tonight's contest.
Stop the Luna-cy
Rhinelander fans will hear Luna Larson's named called plenty this evening. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound senior is arguably the Thunderbirds' best player on both sides of the football.
Larson is ranked as the 15th best senior, and second best linebacker, in the state according to WisSports.net's preseason player rankings. Though he missed a handful of games due to injury, Larson still ranks third for Baraboo with 41 overall tackles - and leads the team with nine tackles for loss and four sacks.
"We're going to have to know where he is at all times and we're going to have to put a body on him at all times," Kraemer said. "We're going to have to move feet with our guards and make sure our guards get their bodies on him solidly so he can't come through."
Larson is also Baraboo's quarterback. He has thrown just enough to keep defenses honest -passing for 549 yards three touchdowns and four interceptions - but is a dynamic threat on the ground, averaging 11.1 yards per carry with 11 touchdowns.
"Much like (Medford's) Aiden Gardner, he's a patient runner, a strong runner," Kraemer said. "He may be a little faster than Gardner, but he's a good player and our guys see an opportunity, playing against him, someone who's highly recruited."
Medford-like attack
The comparisons to Medford don't stop with Larson's running style. The Thunderbirds primarily operate out of a pistol formation and oftentimes stack both of their tight ends to one wing - creating a look that is very similar to Medford's patented single wing attack.
If the Larson isn't keeping the ball, odds are it is going to tailback Kane Mahoney who has rushed for 1,232 yards and seven touchdowns so far this season, while averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
"They're just trying to overload a side and we did pretty well against that against Medford," Kraemer said. "We have a game plan ready for that style of offense and we have a plan for the other style - the double-wing style, the spread style, the zone read."
Kraemer says he sees it as a battle of strength on strength for a Hodag defense that held teams to 61.2 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry in the regular season.
"We need to get those running backs to the ground and we've got to pursue to the football as well as we have all season," he said. "You look at the GNC stats, we're No. 1 in rushing defense. That's strength on strength and we're ready for that."
Brady Henry and Riley Wehy are Baraboo's top two targets in the passing game. They've combined for 40 receptions, 543 yards and all four of the Thunderbirds' receiving touchdowns.
Blitz-a-boo
Defensively, expect pressure and lots of it from Baraboo. Larson often crowds the line of scrimmage from his middle linebacker spot when he's in the game and the Thunderbirds will typically commit more defenders than the offense can block in an effort to stop the running game. That mindset has worked well this year as Baraboo is holding teams to 79.9 rushing yards a game and 3.2 yards per carry.
"It looks like a 3-5 and (Larson)'s playing a Mike linebacker and they're playing man coverage over the top," Kraemer said. "We know that he blitzes almost 90% of the time. When he's in there, it seems like that middle linebacker is blitzing. When he's not in, we've noticed that they blitz more. I think they know he's their best player and they might have to bring a little more pressure when he's not in.
"Our job is to put bodies on bodies and move their defense. They like to pack the box and move guys up in the box, and move guys around."
Biding their time
Baraboo's stout run defense will be a test for Cayden Neri - who officially rushed for a state-high 317 yards in last week's win at Ashland -and the rest of the Hodag offense.
Kraemer said it may take a more patient mindset from the Hodags, to settle for short gains more often and hop to occasionally pop a long run.
Additionally, the Hodags could call upon quarterback Jacksen Smith's arm against a Thunderbird defense that has allowed 115 passing yards a game and nine touchdowns through the air in the regular season.
"Cayden and Caleb (Olcikas) are going to have to make some guys miss and we're going to have to keep them honest in the pass game too," Kraemer said. "Our receivers are going to have to have a big week. We're going to have to catch all the passes we have the opportunity to catch and Jacksen's going to have to make the right throws at the right times."
Open bracket
The winner of tonight's game gets the winner of the Level 1 matchup between top-seeded Mosinee and eighth-seeded Hayward. That creates the distinct possibility of a Rhinelander-Mosinee Level 2 rematch should the Hodags pull off a road victory tonight.
Elsewhere in the bracket, second-seeded Mt. Horeb/Barneveld, the champions of the Badger Small, host Onalaska while Medford will face Rice Lake in the playoffs for the second straight postseason.
Overall, the combined .708 winning percentage of the eight teams in Rhinelander's regional grouping is the strongest of the four Division 3 brackets.
"You look, from seven to one, any of those teams could come out of this bracket. Any of them could," Kraemer said. "Onalaska is a well-coached team. Medford has obviously had their troubles this season, but they're still Medford. They play a great Rice Lake team that won the Big Rivers and is deserving of their plaudits. Then you look at the rest of the teams, any of the teams could be coming out of this regional."
Jeremy Mayo may be reached at [email protected].
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