November 25, 2016 at 4:52 p.m.
UW-Madison study shows SDR enrollment leveling off
Study: RHS enrollment projected to grow 'for the foreseeable future'
UW-Madison study shows SDR enrollment leveling off
According to Sarah Kemp, a researcher with the Applied Population Laboratory at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, enrollment in the district should remain relatively steady for at least the next five years.
Kemp, who compiled an enrollment projection for the district four years ago and was asked earlier this fall to compile another one to give school officials an updated look at where the district is heading in the next 10 years and beyond, presented the results of her study Monday evening at the monthly board of education meeting.
"If you were on the board at that time (four years ago), you will see many similarities. The methodology is the same, the way that I laid out the report is very similar," Kemp said. "Now it is an update, showing what has happened over the last five to 10 years and what you might expect going 10 years forward."
Kemp looked not only at the enrollment for the entire district from 4K through grade 12, but also included a breakdown of 4K, K-5, 6-8 and 9-12 projections.
Overall, the district has seen about a 14 percent decrease in enrollment since 2007, Kemp said.
"You can see that drop occurred more significantly in the first five years, and since then, in these last five years, you've actually seen a leveling off of your total enrollment," she said.
Broken down into the four categories, Kemp said 4K enrollment has remained relatively steady at about 102 students a year. Grades K-5 were relatively steady for the first five years and then saw a little bit of increase over the last five years. Middle school enrollment showed a dip that has turned into a slight increase since the 2014-15 school year.
It's at Rhinelander High School where the district has seen the most significant decrease in enrollment.
Kemp said one of the key ways to look at future enrollment is to look at kindergarten enrollment.
"You've seen relatively steady enrollment, although it has fluctuated up and down. You had a couple years of steady enrollment," she said. "But if you look at the last five years, and you trend that out, we do see a decrease. A large part of that is that drop you saw from 13-14 and 14-15, so that provided a pretty dramatic drop in this five-year trend."
Birth numbers in the district show that the majority of the births have been in the city of Rhinelander, and while the overall trend has been yearly spikes and valleys, Kemp's projection shows a slight decrease between now and 2021.
"The long-range trend over the last 18 years is that while it fluctuates up and down, the trend is a steady trend of births," Kemp said. "If we look at the last seven years since 2009, which we think of as kind of the post-Great Recession time period, you've seen a slight decline. This is something I've seen all over the state the last five to seven years. There's been a significant decline in births all around the state in most areas."
Another important tool used to make the projections was a chart comparing the number of people in the district by five-year age groups between the 2000 and 2010 census. Unsurprisingly, the chart showed that the area population is aging.
"You can see by age category, how the school district has shifted in population. I realize the data is a little old, but these are head counts," Kemp said. "But everyone gets counted in the census, so it is pretty accurate. And it does show that the population is aging, but that is no surprise to any of you."
Housing statistics, broken down by single-family, two-family and multi-family units, showed that most of the new housing built in the district has been in the form of single family homes. There was an overall decline in new homes built starting in 2006 that bottomed out in 2011, then climbed until 2014 before dropping slightly in 2015, the last year shown on the chart.
The information also showed a significant spike in multi-family homes built in 2014, which shot up from zero to over 70 new units in that one year. Kemp said students typically come from single-family homes because those homes tend to have more than two bedrooms.
Kemp told the board she used a grade progression ratio between two school years to calculate and then project the enrollment trends. She then averaged those ratios into 10, five and two-year trends. When these grade-to-grade ratios are put into graph form, it shows a fairly steady movement until grade nine, where it spikes significantly.
"You always see this from students who attend private schools through eighth grade who come to the high school, then it comes down for the remaining high school grades," she said.
The actual enrollment projections were broken down into four different models, each with varying fluctuations, but showing the same trend over the next 10 years. According to the projections, enrollment should remain fairly level at about 2,400 students through the 2020-21 school year. From there, the long-range projection shows a slight decline starting again.
"I caution districts, and it's a good thing you had me come back and do this, you have more reliable enrollment projections through '20-'21," she said. "Because those are actual births that have occurred in the area. After that period, you're predicting kindergartners on projected births. So it is not as reliable in the last five years."
Broken down into the four age groups, she predicted a slight decrease in elementary enrollment over the next five years, an increase at the middle school level over the next four years and increasing enrollment at the high school "for the foreseeable future." Kemp said this is to be expected as the previous increases in enrollment at the lower grades work their way up to the higher grades.
She also noted that she reviewed the data from the previous study and found the five-year trend proved overall to be the most accurate of the four models in that report.
"In the projection I did before, I under-projected," she said. "The first year I was pretty much right on or off just slightly. But the following years, you saw an increase and where you saw it was in the elementary grades. And it wasn't just one grade in particular, like often you will see a kindergarten spike. But you really saw an increase across the board in the elementary, which I thought was interesting."
She said those spikes have been incorporated into the new projection, which should make it more accurate going forward.
Kemp noted she has seen similar numbers when conducting enrollment projections in other Northwoods districts. More and more districts in the state have been seeing declining enrollment, she said.
Superintendent Kelli Jacobi said the data in the final report wasn't a surprise to her or anyone on the board but it's helpful to have concrete numbers to confirm the district's own projections.
"When we met at the board retreat, it was decided that it was really important moving forward that we have updated information," Jacobi said.
Kemp looked at enrollment numbers in district schools only, not private schools in the district boundaries. Charter school enrollment was included, however.
Jamie Taylor may be reached at jtaylor@lakeland times.com.
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