September 1, 2014 at 11:29 a.m.
Shoutouts & Callouts
Shoutouts & Callouts
As the disclaimer for most predictions and prognostications go, this is "for entertainment purposes only," especially around Week 9 or 10 when it becomes painfully apparent that some of my predictions are way off-base.
To review last year's picks:
• I foretold that Denver would lose in the Super Bowl, but I said Seattle, which lifted the Lombardi Trophy, wouldn't make the playoffs.
• I was correct in predicting that Green Bay would be one-and-done in the playoffs, but I had the N.Y. Giants as the team to knock them off. The Giants did not so much as sniff the postseason. In fact, the three teams that took the biggest nosedives last year - the Giants, Atlanta and Houston - I predicted would make the playoffs.
• I pegged Kansas City's turnaround, but whiffed on upstart teams Carolina and Philadelphia.
With all of that in mind, I have studied the 2014 schedule, game-by-game, and have come up with the following predictions presented by division.
NFC North
Shoutout: Green Bay - While the injury bug worries me, a healthy Aaron Rodgers will be more than enough to carry the Packers to another NFC North title. My concern is a tough road schedule that includes Thursday's lid-lifter at Seattle and a Week 8 matchup at New Orleans. If the Packers can't win big games on the road in the regular season, they will have to try to win them in January. They did in 2010-'11, but it's no easy task.
Callout: Mediocrity - I can't really single out any team in particular in the North, because I think they'll all be OK, but nothing more. Chicago and Detroit have serious offensive weapons, but shaky defenses will keep them around .500. Minnesota, despite being displaced while a new stadium is being constructed, will be better this year. QB Teddy Bridgewater was a wise draft pick and will probably start at some point this season. You do have to question how many years Adrian Peterson has left in the tank, however.
NFC East
Shoutouts: Philadelphia, N.Y. Giants - One of the biggest variables entering last year was how Chip Kelly's up-tempo spread offense would work in the NFL. It worked well for the Eagles with a quarterback (Nick Foles) no one really expected would be a starter when last season commenced. Getting rid of DeSean Jackson was addition by subtraction and, frankly, the rest of the NFC East doesn't scare me. The Giants won't make the playoffs, but I cannot believe a quarterback who has won two Super Bowls can be as awful as Eli Manning was last year two years in a row.
Callout: Washington - By the end of the 2014 campaign, #FailtotheRedskins will be trending on Twitter. Whether it's the debate over the team's nickname or its poor play on the field, I don't expect much out of D.C. this year except, as is true in any election year, a lot of empty promises.
NFC South
Shoutout: New Orleans - As much as people love to rave about the home-field advantage Seattle possesses, the Superdome atmosphere is right up there. Aside from trips to Pittsburgh in Week 13 and Chicago in Week 15, the schedule makers are keeping the Saints nice and warm in November and December - which is huge for Drew Brees' high-flying offense.
Callout: Carolina - My gut tells me the Panthers are a one-hit wonder. The defense didn't look exceptionally good in its Week 3 preseason tilt against New England and Cam Newton left the game with a rib injury. What's more, with Steve Smith gone, you aren't likely to name any of Carolina's wide receivers, unless you've spent way too much time preparing for your fantasy draft.
NFC West
Shoutout: Pretty much everybody. As much as it pains me to admit it, Seattle is legit on both sides of the football and has shown no signs of a Super Bowl hangover in the preseason. The vibes for Arizona and San Francisco have been a little shakier this summer, but the NFC West remains the best division in football, in my opinion. Don't be surprised if the West sends three teams to the playoffs.
Callout: St. Louis - That leaves the Rams as the also-ran in the division. Sam Bradford's out for the season, again, with a torn ACL. While Shaun Hill is a capable back up, he's no Kurt Warner circa 1999.
AFC North
Shoutout: Cincinnati - The offense has playmakers with A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert. The Bengals front office must feel comfortable with quarterback Andy Dalton, as they gave him a hugh contract extension, and the defense is one of the best in football. The big question mark - can this team finally produce in the playoffs?
Callout: Cleveland Browns - I was openly hoping, wishing, practically begging the Minnesota Vikings to draft Johnny Manziel last May for reasons which "Johnny Football" has demonstrated spectacularly so far this preseason. He's already showing up late for meetings, flipping off the opposing bench and couldn't even beat out journeyman Brian Hoyer for the starting QB gig. Mark my words: Johnny Manziel is the second coming of Ryan Leaf. But chin up, Cleveland. You've got that James guy back, so at least you'll be OK in basketball.
AFC East
Shoutout: New England - I know. This is about as revelating as me saying, "The sun will rise in the East." The Patriots are simply better than the rest of the teams in their division - better quarterback, better players, better coach, better front office. Until that changes, the Pats win the East by default. That being said, Tom Brady's been anything but "Tom Terrific" in the postseason as of late.
Callout: Buffalo - You ever wonder what Marv Levy, Jim Kelly and the rest of the cast from the early '90s Bills think about when they see what's become of their once great franchise? Well Kelly told Sirius NFL Radio last year that the Bills QBs stink and, frankly, the rest of the team isn't much better.
AFC South
Shoutout: Indianapolis - Lesson learned from last year: Andrew Luck is a top-level NFL quarterback and has enough talent around him to win what is an otherwise lackluster division. The first half schedule features tough games against Denver, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Cincinnati, but I expect the Colts to make a run late in the season to win the division.
Callout: Jacksonville - The bad news, your team still stinks. The good news, you do have a promising young QB in Blake Bortles and if he turns out to be a bust at least you can keep track of your fantasy team by watching the NFL RedZone Channel from one of the massive party decks at Everbank Stadium.
AFC West
Shoutout: Denver - This may be Peyton Manning's last best shot at a second Super Bowl ring and the Broncos know it, making upgrades this offseason on both sides of the ball. Another concussion for Wes Welker is a bit of a buzzkill, but the Broncos are loaded for bear and eager to make their embarrassing showing in last year's Super Bowl a distant memory.
Callouts: Kansas City and Oakland - Like Carolina, I see Kansas City coming back to earth this year. Why? Because quarterback Alex Smith can only take a team so far. The defense helped the Chiefs win a lot of games early last season, but fell apart toward the end of the campaign. Plus, Andy Reid's game management is bound to cost the Chiefs a game or two, as it did last year in the Wild Card round. Meanwhile, a recent secret player ballot conducted by ESPN listed the Raiders as the least desirable team to play for. Between the lack of success and a disintegrating O.co Coliseum, there's a reason they call Oakland "The Black Hole."
The Playoffs
In the AFC, there are a couple of teams that need to prove they can get it done in the playoffs - Cincinnati and New England. And before you start telling me about all of Tom Brady's Super Bowl rings, ask yourself what have he and the Pats done in the postseason since falling to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. That opens the field for a couple of upsets, which will mean deep tournament runs for the Ravens and the Chargers, but in the end, I still think Denver has the best team and the best quarterback in the AFC.
In the NFC, home-field advantage will mean everything - especially if Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans are battling for the No. 1 seed as I suspect they will be. That's where regular season losses at Seattle and New Orleans will hurt the Pack. I don't expect them to go to either city in January and come away with a win.
Whoever wins home-field advantage in the NFC will likely go to the Super Bowl. I give that nod to the Saints, who have an easier division than the Seahawks.
That sets up a bit of deja vu from Super Bowl XLIV - The Saints vs. Peyton Manning. It would be the perfect storyline. Manning beats the Saints, hoists the Lombardi Trophy and rides off into the sunset like the man who brought him to Denver - John Elway.
New Orleans might not have Tracy Porter anymore and Sean Payton might not dial up an onside kick, but the Saints will march all over the Manning farewell parade and bring Lombardi back to Louisiana.
Or will they? The journey toward that answer begins Thursday.
Jeremy Mayo may be reached at [email protected].
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